Stockport County vs Wigan – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stockport County (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stockport County face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Wigan at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wigan have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stockport County register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wigan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Stockport County: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Wigan, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 4–0 with Stockport County winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Stockport County and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Wigan trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 59% versus Wigan 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 61% | Wigan 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.21 xG and Wigan 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.275 / defence 1.034 | Wigan attack 0.878 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Stockport County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Stockport County games / 50 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 60% | Draw 22% | Wigan 18%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Wigan 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 60% | Wigan 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 60% | Draw 22% | Wigan 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Stockport County 2.21 / Wigan 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.275 / def 1.034 | Wigan attack 0.878 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Wigan xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Wigan kick off?
Stockport County vs Wigan is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Edgeley Park.
Where is Stockport County vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Wigan part of?
Stockport County vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 60% chance of winning, Wigan a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stockport County and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
Record (5 meetings): Stockport County 3W | Draws 2 | Wigan 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Wigan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.61
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.37
1.16
Wigan xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
11%
9.16
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
2%
51.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.16 for Wigan, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 10D 16L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.16 PPG from 51 outings (15W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wigan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Wigan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 14W 4D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (3W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Early Season
Wigan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 25W 10D 16L in their last 51 games (1.67 PPG), while Wigan have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Wigan away?
Stockport County's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.84 PPG; Wigan away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Sep 2026, when Stockport County won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
From 5 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 3, Wigan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Wigan 0-4 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Wigan?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 64%, Wigan 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Stockport County) and 44% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Wigan in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stockport County's games and 64% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Stockport County's recent games and 44% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Wigan tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Wigan in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.