Stockport County vs Wigan – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stockport County (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stockport County face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Wigan at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Stockport County: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Wigan, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 4–0 with Stockport County winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Stockport County and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Wigan trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 56% versus Wigan 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 56% | Wigan 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.90 xG and Wigan 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.172 / defence 0.999 | Wigan attack 0.680 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Data: 60 Stockport County games / 59 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 60% | Draw 25% | Wigan 15%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Wigan 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 70% | Wigan 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 60% | Draw 25% | Wigan 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Stockport County 1.90 / Wigan 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.172 / def 0.999 | Wigan attack 0.680 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Wigan xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Wigan kick off?
Stockport County vs Wigan is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Edgeley Park.
Where is Stockport County vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Wigan part of?
Stockport County vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 60% chance of winning, Wigan a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stockport County and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
Record (5 meetings): Stockport County 3W | Draws 2 | Wigan 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Wigan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
60%
1.65
25%
4.06
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.76
0.86
Wigan xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
44.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.86 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 59 games, going 30W 12D 17L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.12 PPG from 59 outings (17W 15D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Wigan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 18W 4D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 0.69 points per game from 29 outings (3W 11D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wigan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Wigan in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 30W 12D 17L in their last 59 games (1.73 PPG), while Wigan have gone 17W 15D 27L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Wigan away?
Stockport County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.00 PPG; Wigan away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wigan in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Sep 2026, when Stockport County won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Wigan?
From 5 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 3, Wigan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Wigan 0-4 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Wigan?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 62%, Wigan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Stockport County) and 48% (Wigan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Wigan in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Stockport County's games and 62% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Stockport County's matches and 48% of Wigan's.
Do Stockport County and Wigan tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Wigan in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.