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Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stockport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Stockport County 1-3 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 0.92 xG and Stevenage 0.96 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Stevenage attack 0.88 / defence 0.80, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 33% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 35%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 44%, Stevenage 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Stevenage's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.78 PPG, Stevenage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights