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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.73 xG and Shrewsbury 0.98 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Shrewsbury attack 0.84 / defence 1.27, drawn from 27/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 55% | Draw 24% | Shrewsbury 21%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 53%, Shrewsbury 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights