🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rotherham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Rotherham 3-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.32 xG and Rotherham 0.84 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against Rotherham attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 48% | Draw 28% | Rotherham 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 48%, Rotherham 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Rotherham's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Rotherham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.98 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights