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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Peterborough 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Peterborough 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.00 xG and Peterborough 1.27 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Peterborough attack 1.08 / defence 1.32, drawn from 20/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 54% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 53%, Peterborough 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Peterborough's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.89 PPG, Peterborough 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights