Stockport County vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Stockport County (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stockport County face Notts County.

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Full Analysis

Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Notts County in League One, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Stockport County have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Notts County's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Notts County's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Stockport County's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Notts County's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Stockport County 2W, Notts County 0W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Notts County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 57% | Notts County 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.56 xG and Notts County 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.172 / defence 1.005 | Notts County attack 0.829 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.239. Data: 60 Stockport County games / 12 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 47% | Draw 30% | Notts County 23%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Notts County 4.35. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 70% | Notts County 40% BTTS from recent games.

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