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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Stockport County 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mansfield Town beat Stockport County 1-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.30 xG and Mansfield Town 1.07 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against Mansfield Town attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 24/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 42% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 31%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 52%, Mansfield Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Mansfield Town's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.91 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights