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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Lincoln 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Lincoln 3-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.63 xG and Lincoln 1.05 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lincoln outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.23 / defence 0.87 against Lincoln attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 51% | Draw 25% | Lincoln 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 49%, Lincoln 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Lincoln's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights