Stockport County 1-4 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Leyton Orient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 7 as Stockport County welcome Leyton Orient to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stockport County's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Edgeley Park this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Leyton Orient — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Leyton Orient have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leyton Orient's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Stockport County are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Stockport County's 30% rate and Leyton Orient's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stockport County, 1 for Leyton Orient and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Leyton Orient trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 55% versus Leyton Orient 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 55% | Leyton Orient 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.28 xG and Leyton Orient 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.009 / defence 0.924 | Leyton Orient attack 0.806 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.193. Data: 5 Stockport County games / 51 Leyton Orient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 45% | Draw 30% | Leyton Orient 25%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Leyton Orient 4.00. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 30% | Leyton Orient 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 45% | Draw 30% | Leyton Orient 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Stockport County 1.28 / Leyton Orient 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.009 / def 0.924 | Leyton Orient attack 0.806 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Leyton Orient xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Stockport County vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Stockport County 1 - 4 Leyton Orient.
Where is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient part of?
Stockport County vs Leyton Orient is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 45% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stockport County and Leyton Orient will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Leyton Orient?
Record (2 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Leyton Orient 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Leyton Orient in?
Stockport County (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Leyton Orient (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.01) and Leyton Orient's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leyton Orient's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.38
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.17
0.89
Leyton Orient xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.89 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stockport County come into this having played 51 games, going 30W 13D 8L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Leyton Orient sit at 1.33 PPG from 51 outings (19W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Leyton Orient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Leyton Orient — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stockport County's home form reads 17W 5D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Leyton Orient have taken 1.44 points per game from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.10 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Early Season
Leyton Orient
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 30W 13D 8L in their last 51 games (2.02 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 19W 11D 21L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Leyton Orient away?
Stockport County's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.24 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Stockport County won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Leyton Orient specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Stockport County
4
Draws
2
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Leyton Orient?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Leyton Orient have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Leyton Orient last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stockport County 0-0 Leyton Orient.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 32%, Leyton Orient 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stockport County) and 44% (Leyton Orient).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Leyton Orient in 32%; Leyton Orient in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Leyton Orient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Stockport County's recent matches and 44% of Leyton Orient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Leyton Orient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stockport County's recent games and 44% of Leyton Orient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Leyton Orient tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Leyton Orient in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leyton Orient run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient beat Stockport County 1-4 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.28 xG and Leyton Orient 0.89 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Leyton Orient outscored their 0.89 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Leyton Orient attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 5/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 45% | Draw 30% | Leyton Orient 25%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Leyton Orient win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 55%, Leyton Orient 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Leyton Orient winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.