🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Exeter City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Exeter City 1-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.23 xG and Exeter City 0.79 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Exeter City attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 47% | Draw 30% | Exeter City 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 43%, Exeter City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Exeter City's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights