Stockport County vs Exeter City – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Exeter City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Exeter City 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.46 xG and Exeter City 1.12 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Exeter City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.12 / defence 1.14 against Exeter City attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 18/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 45% | Draw 26% | Exeter City 29%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 54%, Exeter City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Exeter City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights