Stockport County vs Doncaster – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Stockport County (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stockport County face Doncaster.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Doncaster make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League One, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 7W 0D 3L at Edgeley Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Doncaster's overall League One record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Doncaster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Doncaster's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 1.00 PPG lead over Doncaster (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Stockport County register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Doncaster in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Stockport County, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Doncaster — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2026, ended 2–0 with Stockport County winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Stockport County and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Doncaster half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 56% versus Doncaster 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 56% | Doncaster 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.38 xG and Doncaster 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.172 / defence 1.005 | Doncaster attack 0.919 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.239. Doncaster bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Stockport County games / 59 Doncaster games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 63% | Draw 21% | Doncaster 15%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Doncaster 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 70% | Doncaster 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Doncaster | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 63% | Draw 21% | Doncaster 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Stockport County 2.38 / Doncaster 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.172 / def 1.005 | Doncaster attack 0.919 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Doncaster xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Doncaster kick off?
Stockport County vs Doncaster is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 January 2027 at Edgeley Park.
Where is Stockport County vs Doncaster being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Doncaster part of?
Stockport County vs Doncaster is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Doncaster?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 63% chance of winning, Doncaster a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Doncaster?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stockport County and Doncaster will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Doncaster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Doncaster?
Record (7 meetings): Stockport County 5W | Draws 1 | Doncaster 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Doncaster in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Doncaster (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.17) and Doncaster's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Doncaster's attack (0.92x) against Stockport County's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.67
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.52
1.14
Doncaster xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
9%
10.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
1%
70.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Doncaster?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Doncaster expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.14 for Doncaster, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Doncaster?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stockport County's recent record stands at 30W 12D 17L from 59 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Doncaster, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 27L across 59 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Doncaster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Doncaster heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 18W 4D 7L from 29 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Doncaster's away record stands at 8W 4D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Doncaster are on 1.08 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Doncaster
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Doncaster in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 30W 12D 17L in their last 59 games (1.73 PPG), while Doncaster have gone 20W 12D 27L in their last 59 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Doncaster away?
Stockport County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.00 PPG; Doncaster away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Doncaster been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Doncaster in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 20 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 1-5 on 27 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Doncaster — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Stockport County
1
Draws
1
Doncaster
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Doncaster?
From 7 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 5, Doncaster have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Doncaster last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2026, when Doncaster 0-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Doncaster?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Doncaster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 62%, Doncaster 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Stockport County and 59% for Doncaster. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Doncaster in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Doncaster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Doncaster?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Stockport County's games and 48% of Doncaster's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Doncaster usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Stockport County's matches and 59% of Doncaster's.
Do Stockport County and Doncaster tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Doncaster in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More UK football predictions →