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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Doncaster.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Doncaster 4-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.46 xG and Doncaster 1.02 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Doncaster outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.88 / defence 1.19 against Doncaster attack 0.74 / defence 1.24, drawn from 67/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 47% | Draw 26% | Doncaster 26%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 47%, Doncaster 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Doncaster's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.78 PPG, Doncaster 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Doncaster (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights