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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Crawley Town 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.18 xG and Crawley Town 1.10 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.59, drawn from 26/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 62% | Draw 20% | Crawley Town 18%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 53%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crawley Town's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights