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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County and Cardiff finished level at 1-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.19 xG and Cardiff 0.81 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Cardiff attack 0.79 / defence 0.76, drawn from 53/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 45% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 25%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Cardiff 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights