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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Blackpool 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Blackpool 1-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.57 xG and Blackpool 0.77 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Blackpool attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 56% | Draw 25% | Blackpool 18%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 44%, Blackpool 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Blackpool's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Blackpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights