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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Blackpool 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Blackpool 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.25 xG and Blackpool 1.26 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Blackpool attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 33/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 36% | Draw 27% | Blackpool 37%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Blackpool 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Blackpool's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights