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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County and Barnsley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County and Barnsley finished level at 1-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.24 xG and Barnsley 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Barnsley attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 62/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 36% | Draw 27% | Barnsley 37%, with Barnsley to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 47%, Barnsley 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Barnsley's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.78 PPG, Barnsley 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights