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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Barnsley 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Barnsley 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.38 xG and Barnsley 1.22 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Barnsley attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 29/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stockport County 40% | Draw 26% | Barnsley 33%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 51%, Barnsley 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stockport County's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Barnsley's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.89 PPG, Barnsley 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Barnsley (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights