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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Wycombe 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Wycombe 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.27 xG and Wycombe 0.95 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wycombe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Wycombe attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 44% | Draw 28% | Wycombe 28%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 35%, Wycombe 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Wycombe's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.35 PPG, Wycombe 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Wycombe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights