Stevenage 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shrewsbury make the trip to Lamex Stadium to face Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stevenage haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shrewsbury have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shrewsbury haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Shrewsbury have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Stevenage against 1.00 for Shrewsbury. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Stevenage 2W, Shrewsbury 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Shrewsbury 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 48% | Shrewsbury 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.31 xG and Shrewsbury 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.930 / defence 0.907 | Shrewsbury attack 0.945 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.223. Data: 46 Stevenage games / 46 Shrewsbury games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 43% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 30%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Shrewsbury 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Shrewsbury 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 43% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Stevenage 1.31 / Shrewsbury 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.930 / def 0.907 | Shrewsbury attack 0.945 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Shrewsbury xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Stevenage vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Shrewsbury?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Stevenage vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Shrewsbury part of?
Stevenage vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 43% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stevenage and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Shrewsbury?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Shrewsbury in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.93) and Shrewsbury's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.94x) against Stevenage's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.62
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.36
1.05
Shrewsbury xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.05 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 19W 14D 13L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. Stevenage haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shrewsbury's form line: 13W 9D 24L from 46 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. Shrewsbury haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (10W 8D 5L).
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.76 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Pre-Season
Shrewsbury
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 19W 14D 13L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 13W 9D 24L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Shrewsbury away?
Stevenage's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.65 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stevenage have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Stevenage
0
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Shrewsbury?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Shrewsbury 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Shrewsbury?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Shrewsbury 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Stevenage) and 39% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 26% of games; Shrewsbury in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 35% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Stevenage's recent games and 39% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.31 xG and Shrewsbury 1.05 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against Shrewsbury attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 43% | Draw 28% | Shrewsbury 30%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 48%, Shrewsbury 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.