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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stevenage and Rotherham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Stevenage and Rotherham drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.22 xG and Rotherham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Rotherham attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 40% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 31%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Rotherham 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Rotherham's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rotherham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.98 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights