Stevenage vs Plymouth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Plymouth travel to Broadhall Way to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 6W 2D 2L at Broadhall Way — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Broadhall Way. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at Broadhall Way than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plymouth are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stevenage, 1 for Plymouth and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Plymouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Plymouth trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Plymouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 37% | Plymouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.32 xG and Plymouth 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.984 / defence 0.870 | Plymouth attack 1.253 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Stevenage games / 57 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 34% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 38%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Plymouth 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Plymouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Broadhall Way • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 34% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Stevenage 1.32 / Plymouth 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.984 / def 0.870 | Plymouth attack 1.253 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Plymouth xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Plymouth kick off?
Stevenage vs Plymouth is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at Broadhall Way.
Where is Stevenage vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Broadhall Way.
What competition is Stevenage vs Plymouth part of?
Stevenage vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 34% chance of winning, Plymouth a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stevenage and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 1 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Plymouth in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.98) and Plymouth's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
34%
2.95
28%
3.62
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.74
1.42
Plymouth xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.42 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage come into this having played 57 games, going 24W 15D 18L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.61 PPG from 57 outings (28W 8D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.53 PPG, Plymouth on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stevenage's home form reads 16W 8D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.75 points per game from 28 outings (15W 4D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.63 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 28W 8D 21L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Plymouth away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Plymouth in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Plymouth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Plymouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 0, Plymouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Plymouth 1-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Plymouth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stevenage) and 57% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stevenage's recent games and 57% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Plymouth tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.