Stevenage vs Peterborough – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Peterborough meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 February 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Stevenage haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 7W 1D 2L at Lamex Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Peterborough (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Peterborough haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Stevenage's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Stevenage 2W, Peterborough 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).
Peterborough — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Peterborough 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 35% | Peterborough 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.47 xG and Peterborough 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.926 / defence 0.812 | Peterborough attack 0.959 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.240. Data: 46 Stevenage games / 46 Peterborough games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 49% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 25%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Peterborough 4.00. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Stevenage 40% | Peterborough 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Feb 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 49% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Stevenage 1.47 / Peterborough 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.926 / def 0.812 | Peterborough attack 0.959 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Peterborough xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Peterborough kick off?
Stevenage vs Peterborough is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 February 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Peterborough part of?
Stevenage vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 49% chance of winning, Peterborough a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stevenage and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
Record (6 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 2 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.96x) against Stevenage's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.80
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.44
0.97
Peterborough xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
17.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.97 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 12D 15L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. Stevenage haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Peterborough's form line: 15W 8D 23L from 46 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. Peterborough haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Stevenage against 1.15 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.00 PPG from 23 outings (13W 7D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 7W 2D 14L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.39 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Pre-Season
Peterborough
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 19W 12D 15L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 15W 8D 23L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Peterborough away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Peterborough in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stevenage have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stevenage
2
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 39%, Peterborough 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Stevenage) and 56% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stevenage's recent matches and 61% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Stevenage's recent games and 56% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Peterborough tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.