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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Peterborough 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Peterborough 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.09 xG and Peterborough 1.07 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.85 against Peterborough attack 1.14 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 36% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 35%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 35%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Peterborough's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.33 PPG, Peterborough 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights