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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stevenage and Peterborough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage and Peterborough finished level at 1-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 2.21 xG and Peterborough 1.13 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Peterborough attack 0.96 / defence 1.53, drawn from 75/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 62% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 18%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 44%, Peterborough 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Peterborough's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.48 PPG, Peterborough 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights