Stevenage vs Mansfield Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Mansfield Town in League One, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 14 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mansfield Town (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Mansfield Town have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Stevenage 1W, Mansfield Town 3W, 4D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Mansfield Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 38% | Mansfield Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.38 xG and Mansfield Town 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.938 / defence 0.797 | Mansfield Town attack 1.243 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Mansfield Town have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Stevenage games / 58 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 38% | Draw 30% | Mansfield Town 32%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Mansfield Town 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Stevenage 40% | Mansfield Town 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 38% | Draw 30% | Mansfield Town 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Stevenage 1.38 / Mansfield Town 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.938 / def 0.797 | Mansfield Town attack 1.243 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Mansfield Town xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town part of?
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 38% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stevenage and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
Record (8 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 4 | Mansfield Town 3W.
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.24x) against Stevenage's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.37
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.63
1.25
Mansfield Town xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
8%
12.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.25 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage's recent record stands at 23W 16D 19L from 58 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 21W 20D 17L across 58 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Stevenage against 1.43 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 16W 8D 5L from 29 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 9W 10D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.41 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 23W 16D 19L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 21W 20D 17L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Mansfield Town away?
Stevenage's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.93 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stevenage
4
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 41%, Mansfield Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Stevenage) and 45% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Mansfield Town in 31%; Mansfield Town in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stevenage's recent matches and 52% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Stevenage's recent games and 45% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 41% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.