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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stevenage and Mansfield Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage and Mansfield Town finished level at 1-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.60 xG and Mansfield Town 1.28 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Mansfield Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.28, drawn from 80/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 44% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 30%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Mansfield Town 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Mansfield Town's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.48 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights