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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stevenage and Lincoln share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage and Lincoln finished level at 2-2 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.85 xG and Lincoln 1.05 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lincoln outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.82 / defence 0.71 against Lincoln attack 1.31 / defence 0.74, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 29% | Draw 32% | Lincoln 40%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Lincoln 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Lincoln's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.41 PPG, Lincoln 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights