Stevenage 0-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 4 as Stevenage welcome Lincoln to Lamex Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium.
Across all League One games this season, Lincoln have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lincoln have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lincoln are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stevenage, 0 for Lincoln and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Lincoln 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 47% | Lincoln 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.922 / defence 0.834 | Lincoln attack 1.238 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.196. Lincoln have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Stevenage games / 49 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 36%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Lincoln 2.78. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Lincoln 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Stevenage 1.24 / Lincoln 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.922 / def 0.834 | Lincoln attack 1.238 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Lincoln xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Lincoln kick off?
Stevenage vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Stevenage 0 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Stevenage vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Lincoln part of?
Stevenage vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 36% chance of winning, Lincoln a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Lincoln?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Lincoln 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Lincoln in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Lincoln (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.92x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
36%
2.74
27%
3.68
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.47
1.23
Lincoln xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.23 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage come into this having played 49 games, going 20W 15D 14L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.63 PPG from 49 outings (22W 14D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lincoln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.53 PPG, Lincoln on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stevenage's home form reads 11W 8D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.67 points per game from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.49 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Lincoln in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Lincoln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 20W 15D 14L in their last 49 games (1.53 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 22W 14D 13L in their last 49 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Lincoln away?
Stevenage's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.71 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lincoln in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Lincoln?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Lincoln have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Stevenage 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Lincoln 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stevenage) and 38% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Lincoln in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stevenage's recent games and 38% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Lincoln tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lincoln defy the odds to beat Stevenage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Stevenage 0-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.92 / defence 0.83 against Lincoln attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 36% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 36%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lincoln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 47%, Lincoln 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lincoln's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.53 PPG, Lincoln 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Lincoln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.