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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Leyton Orient defy the odds to beat Stevenage 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leyton Orient beat Stevenage 1-2 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.48 xG and Leyton Orient 0.83 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Leyton Orient outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.88 / defence 0.77 against Leyton Orient attack 0.93 / defence 1.19, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 53% | Draw 26% | Leyton Orient 21%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Leyton Orient win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 38%, Leyton Orient 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Leyton Orient's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.39 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights