Stevenage 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Charlton at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's home record at Lamex Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stevenage at 1.20 PPG versus Charlton's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stevenage, 0 for Charlton and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Charlton 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 45% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.13 xG and Charlton 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.999 / defence 0.714 | Charlton attack 0.870 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.286. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Stevenage games / 53 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 43% | Draw 32% | Charlton 25%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Charlton 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Charlton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 43% | Draw 32% | Charlton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Stevenage 1.13 / Charlton 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.999 / def 0.714 | Charlton attack 0.870 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Charlton xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Charlton kick off?
Stevenage vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Charlton?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Stevenage vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Charlton part of?
Stevenage vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 43% chance of winning, Charlton a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stevenage and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 2 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Charlton in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Stevenage vs Charlton?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (1.00) and Charlton's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
43%
2.34
32%
3.12
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.92
0.80
Charlton xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.80 for Charlton, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 21W 16D 16L from 53 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 15W 21D 17L across 53 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.49 PPG, Charlton on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 12W 8D 6L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 5W 12D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.34 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 68%.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Charlton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 21W 16D 16L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while Charlton have gone 15W 21D 17L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Charlton away?
Stevenage's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.69 PPG; Charlton away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Charlton in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stevenage
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Charlton 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 38%, Charlton 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stevenage) and 35% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 27% of games; Charlton in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stevenage's recent matches and 65% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stevenage's recent games and 35% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Charlton tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Charlton in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Charlton 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.13 xG and Charlton 0.80 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.00 / defence 0.71 against Charlton attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 43% | Draw 32% | Charlton 25%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 45%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.49 PPG, Charlton 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.