Stevenage vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Stevenage take on Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bradford travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bradford — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Bradford have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.60 (Bradford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bradford, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Stevenage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Bradford winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bradford have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Bradford 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 38% | Bradford 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.79 xG and Bradford 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.946 / defence 0.808 | Bradford attack 0.740 / defence 0.601. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.239. Bradford's defence strength of 0.601 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Stevenage games / 59 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 31% | Draw 41% | Bradford 28%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.23 | Draw 2.44 | Bradford 3.57. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Bradford's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Bradford 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 31% | Draw 41% | Bradford 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 31% | xG Stevenage 0.79 / Bradford 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.946 / def 0.808 | Bradford attack 0.740 / def 0.601 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Bradford xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Bradford kick off?
Stevenage vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bradford part of?
Stevenage vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 31% chance of winning, Bradford a 28% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Stevenage and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
Record (7 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Bradford 5W.
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Bradford (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
41%
2.44
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.53
0.74
Bradford xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.44
41%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.6 | 16.0 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.74 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 25W 16D 19L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford's form line: 27W 15D 18L from 60 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.52 PPG, Bradford on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (17W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bradford have gone 10W 8D 12L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.10 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Bradford in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 25W 16D 19L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while Bradford have gone 27W 15D 18L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Bradford away?
Stevenage's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.97 PPG; Bradford away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bradford in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Stevenage
1
Draws
5
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
From 7 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Bradford have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Bradford 2-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 40%, Bradford 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stevenage) and 50% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bradford in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stevenage's recent matches and 53% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 50% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Bradford tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Bradford in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.