Stevenage vs Blackpool – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackpool at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Blackpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Blackpool in League One, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's home record at Lamex Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Blackpool (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Blackpool have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackpool's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Blackpool are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Stevenage, 2 for Blackpool and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Blackpool half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 47% versus Blackpool 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 37% | Blackpool 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.24 xG and Blackpool 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.952 / defence 1.015 | Blackpool attack 0.993 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.314. Data: 50 Stevenage games / 49 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 33% | Draw 30% | Blackpool 37%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Blackpool 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackpool are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackpool if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Blackpool 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Blackpool | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 33% | Draw 30% | Blackpool 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Stevenage 1.24 / Blackpool 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.952 / def 1.015 | Blackpool attack 0.993 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Blackpool (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Blackpool xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Blackpool kick off?
Stevenage vs Blackpool is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Blackpool part of?
Stevenage vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 33% chance of winning, Blackpool a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Blackpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stevenage and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Blackpool?
Record (6 meetings): Stevenage 3W | Draws 1 | Blackpool 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Blackpool in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Blackpool (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.95x the league average against Blackpool's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.99x) against Stevenage's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackpool Win
33%
3.03
30%
3.35
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.56
1.32
Blackpool xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.32 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage's recent record stands at 18W 15D 16L from 49 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 20L across 49 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Blackpool, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Stevenage against 1.37 for Blackpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 12W 8D 4L from 24 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Blackpool's away record stands at 6W 4D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackpool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.24 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Blackpool
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 18W 15D 16L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Blackpool away?
Stevenage's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.83 PPG; Blackpool away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Blackpool in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stevenage go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackpool won 3-0 on 14 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stevenage
1
Draws
2
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Blackpool?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Blackpool have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Blackpool.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Blackpool?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Blackpool see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 46%, Blackpool 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stevenage) and 46% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Blackpool in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Blackpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stevenage's recent matches and 42% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 46% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.