🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.65 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.04 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.06 / defence 1.36, drawn from 81/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stevenage 51% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 24%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 38%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stevenage's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.37 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights