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Prediction vindicated as Wigan edge out Shrewsbury 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wigan beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.67 xG and Wigan 1.16 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.69 / defence 1.34 against Wigan attack 0.77 / defence 0.75, drawn from 88/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 21% | Draw 32% | Wigan 47%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 41%, Wigan 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Wigan's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Wigan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights