Shrewsbury 0-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stockport County make the trip to The Croud Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shrewsbury have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Stockport County's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stockport County away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Stockport County are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 38% versus Stockport County 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 42% | Stockport County 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.07 xG and Stockport County 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.920 / defence 1.092 | Stockport County attack 0.907 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.264. Data: 54 Shrewsbury games / 7 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 30% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Stockport County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shrewsbury 40% | Stockport County 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 30% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Shrewsbury 1.07 / Stockport County 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.920 / def 1.092 | Stockport County attack 0.907 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Stockport County xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Stockport County kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Stockport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Stockport County?
Shrewsbury 0 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Stockport County part of?
Shrewsbury vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 30% chance of winning, Stockport County a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shrewsbury and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shrewsbury and Stockport County in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.92x the league average against Stockport County's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.91x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 54/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
30%
3.33
31%
3.22
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.33
1.25
Stockport County xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.25 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 13W 10D 30L from 53 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 9L across 53 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 8W 4D 14L from 26 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 13W 9D 4L across 26 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 2.02 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Stockport County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 13W 10D 30L in their last 53 games (0.92 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 30W 14D 9L in their last 53 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.08 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Stockport County in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Stockport County?
From 2 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Stockport County 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 42%, Stockport County 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shrewsbury) and 69% (Stockport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Shrewsbury's games and 77% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shrewsbury vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Shrewsbury's matches and 69% of Stockport County's.
Do Shrewsbury and Stockport County tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Shrewsbury 0-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.07 xG and Stockport County 1.25 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Stockport County attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 30% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 39%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 42%, Stockport County 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.