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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Shrewsbury 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Shrewsbury 1-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.30 xG and Crawley Town 1.45 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.50, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 33% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 40%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 42%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Crawley Town's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.89 PPG, Crawley Town 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights