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Prediction vindicated as Cambridge United edge out Shrewsbury 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambridge United beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.16 xG and Cambridge United 1.16 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.75 / defence 1.25 against Cambridge United attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 85/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 29% | Cambridge United 36%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cambridge United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 41%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cambridge United's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.91 PPG, Cambridge United 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights