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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bolton defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Shrewsbury 2-3 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.36 xG and Bolton 1.31 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bolton outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against Bolton attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 27% | Bolton 35%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 42%, Bolton 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shrewsbury's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights