Shrewsbury 0-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shrewsbury and Accrington ST meet at Montgomery Waters Meadow in League One, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 29 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shrewsbury have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury at Montgomery Waters Meadow this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at Montgomery Waters Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Shrewsbury, 1.40 for Accrington ST — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shrewsbury, 1 for Accrington ST and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Accrington ST winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 56% versus Accrington ST 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 48% | Accrington ST 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.75 xG and Accrington ST 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 1.046 / defence 0.958 | Accrington ST attack 0.712 / defence 1.451. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.302. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.451 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Shrewsbury games / 23 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 57% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 19%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Accrington ST 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shrewsbury (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shrewsbury are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 70% | Accrington ST 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 57% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Shrewsbury 1.75 / Accrington ST 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 1.046 / def 0.958 | Accrington ST attack 0.712 / def 1.451 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Accrington ST xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 29 December 2021 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Shrewsbury 0 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST part of?
Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 57% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shrewsbury and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Accrington ST in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.71x) against Shrewsbury's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.21
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.63
0.89
Accrington ST xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
3%
30.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 0.89 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 4D 12L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (10W 3D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.43 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shrewsbury's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Shrewsbury are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 23 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 10W 3D 10L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Accrington ST away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.82 PPG; Accrington ST away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Accrington ST?
From 6 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Accrington ST have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Accrington ST 0-2 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 64%, Accrington ST 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shrewsbury) and 54% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 46% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 54% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shrewsbury's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury and Accrington ST finished level at 0-0 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.75 xG and Accrington ST 0.89 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Accrington ST landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Accrington ST attack 0.71 / defence 1.45, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 57% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 19%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 48%, Accrington ST 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.09 PPG, Accrington ST 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.