Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland meet at Hillsborough in League One, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Sheffield Wednesday (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Sheffield Wednesday are significantly better at Hillsborough than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland's overall League One record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sheffield Wednesday, 2 for Sunderland and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sheffield Wednesday — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sunderland — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 51% versus Sunderland 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 45% | Sunderland 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.67 xG and Sunderland 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.426 / defence 0.934 | Sunderland attack 0.832 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.203. Sheffield Wednesday carry an above-average attack strength of 1.426 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Sheffield Wednesday games / 46 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 53% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 20%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Sunderland 5.00. Sheffield Wednesday hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Wednesday are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Wednesday 50% | Sunderland 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 53% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.67 / Sunderland 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.426 / def 0.934 | Sunderland attack 0.832 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sunderland xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 53% chance of winning, Sunderland a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland?
Record (3 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 2W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Sunderland (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sheffield Wednesday's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.83x) against Sheffield Wednesday's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.67
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.60
0.94
Sunderland xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
4%
26.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.94 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Sheffield Wednesday have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 24W 13D 10L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 25W 12D 10L from 47 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Sheffield Wednesday against 1.85 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 2.30 PPG from 23 outings (16W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Sheffield Wednesday are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sunderland have gone 8W 9D 6L from 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.70 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 24W 13D 10L in their last 47 games (1.81 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 25W 12D 10L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Sunderland away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 2.30 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sunderland in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sunderland have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 5-0 on 30 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sheffield Wednesday
1
Draws
5
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland?
From 8 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 2, Sunderland have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Sheffield Wednesday 1-2 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 52%, Sunderland 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 61% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sunderland in 30%; Sunderland in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 52% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 61% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hillsborough, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, as Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.67 xG and Sunderland 0.94 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.43 / defence 0.93 against Sunderland attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 53% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 20%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 45%, Sunderland 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.81 PPG, Sunderland 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.