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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rotherham and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Rotherham and Stockport County drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.29 xG and Stockport County 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Stockport County attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 20/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 43% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 29%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 44%, Stockport County 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights