Rotherham 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rotherham at 40%, yet in-form Stevenage provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rotherham vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rotherham welcome Stevenage to Aesseal New York Stadium in League One (matchday 41). Kick-off is Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rotherham have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Rotherham have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Stevenage — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stevenage are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rotherham have won 1, Stevenage 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Rotherham 0–1 Stevenage — a Stevenage win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 46% versus Stevenage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 49% | Stevenage 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.20 xG and Stevenage 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.814 / defence 1.164 | Stevenage attack 0.794 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.122. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Rotherham's last 84 games and Stevenage's last 84.
Result probabilities: Rotherham 40% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.52 | Draw 3.48 | Stevenage 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rotherham as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rotherham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rotherham 50% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 41 | Venue: Aesseal New York Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 40% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Rotherham 1.20 / Stevenage 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.814 / def 1.164 | Stevenage attack 0.794 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Stevenage xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rotherham vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Rotherham vs Stevenage kick off?
Rotherham vs Stevenage kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Aesseal New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Stevenage?
Rotherham 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Rotherham vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Aesseal New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Stevenage part of?
Rotherham vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 40% chance of winning, Stevenage a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rotherham and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Rotherham vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rotherham's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rotherham's last 84 games and Stevenage's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.48
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.24
1.04
Stevenage xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rotherham vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.04 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 84 outings, Rotherham have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 25W 20D 39L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 32W 21D 31L from 84 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rotherham on 1.13 PPG, Stevenage on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rotherham have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 42 home games (17W 12D 13L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 12W 10D 20L from their last 42 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Rotherham are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.99 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
Rotherham (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rotherham
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Rotherham vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Rotherham and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 25W 20D 39L in their last 84 games (1.13 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 32W 21D 31L in their last 84 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Stevenage away?
Rotherham's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.50 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Rotherham or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rotherham have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Stevenage in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rotherham's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rotherham
2
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Rotherham vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Stevenage?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rotherham have won 1, Stevenage have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Rotherham 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 57%, Stevenage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rotherham) and 38% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 33%; Rotherham have failed to score in 26% of games; Stevenage in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rotherham vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rotherham and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Rotherham's recent matches and 40% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rotherham and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Rotherham's recent games and 38% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Rotherham's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rotherham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aesseal New York Stadium, Regular Season - 41, as Rotherham and Stevenage drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.20 xG and Stevenage 1.04 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rotherham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Stevenage landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Stevenage attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 40% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, Stevenage 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.13 PPG, Stevenage 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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