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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Doncaster defy the odds to beat Rotherham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Rotherham 1-2 at Aesseal New York Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.45 xG and Doncaster 1.21 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.81 / defence 1.32 against Doncaster attack 0.81 / defence 1.28, drawn from 76/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 43% | Draw 26% | Doncaster 32%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Doncaster win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, Doncaster 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.18 PPG, Doncaster 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights