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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Crawley Town run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Rotherham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crawley Town beat Rotherham 0-4 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 2.47 xG and Crawley Town 1.17 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Rotherham fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Crawley Town outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against Crawley Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.82, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 65% | Draw 18% | Crawley Town 16%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 46%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crawley Town's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights