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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rotherham cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Charlton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rotherham beat Charlton 4-2 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.19 xG and Charlton 1.20 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Rotherham beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Charlton attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 24/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 36% | Draw 29% | Charlton 36%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 42%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Rotherham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rotherham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights