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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rotherham edge out Cambridge United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rotherham beat Cambridge United 2-1 at AESSEAL New York Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 2.19 xG and Cambridge United 1.03 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 1.27 / defence 1.02 against Cambridge United attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 26/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 64% | Draw 20% | Cambridge United 17%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 44%, Cambridge United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rotherham 0.85 PPG, Cambridge United 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rotherham win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights