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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rotherham and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Aesseal New York Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Rotherham and Burton Albion drew 2-2 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.02 xG and Burton Albion 0.94 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rotherham beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Burton Albion attack 0.90 / defence 0.81, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 37% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 32%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 46%, Burton Albion 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Burton Albion's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.29 PPG, Burton Albion 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights