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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rotherham and AFC Wimbledon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rotherham and AFC Wimbledon finished level at 1-1 at Aesseal New York Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.49 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.85 / defence 1.30 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.06 / defence 1.31, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rotherham 39% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 37%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 48%, AFC Wimbledon 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rotherham's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.17 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights